Friday, 4 December 2020

Brexit Deal or No Deal?

 
The eleven month allotted time period for an independent Britain to negotiate its new relationship with its former colonial occupier has less than a month to run. Unlike Theresa May, whose "thousand wasted days!" risked seeing the country unable to leave the European Union at all, which was what she really wanted, the Prime Minister Boris Johnson has kept the momentum going and taken a reasonably tough position. His negotiators maintained that the UK should be able to subsidize its own industries, see: https://hpanwo-voice.blogspot.com/2020/09/boris-repeats-no-deal-threat.html. The biggest sore spot in the discussions is about fishing. The British fishing industry was devastated because of the UK's membership of the EU. This was why there were so many leave voters in northeast England where the fishing industry is a major part of their culture. We will soon find out whether Boris will stand up to France's demand to drop their nets in British fisheries and face no consequences, as they used to when Britain was a member state. The French on the European Council have threatened to veto a deal that does not give Britain a BrINO (Brexit In Name Only) status when it comes to fishing. As with the original Brexit delay last year, see: https://hpanwo-tv.blogspot.com/2019/10/boris-letters.html, all members of the Council have to agree to it. It's looking promising because the EU have recently made ludicrous compromises, such as offering the UK a quota of the EU's fish stock if they have access to our waters. Why is not easier for us to catch those same fish ourselves? They know this and it's a sign that they are caving in. Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887 and: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55191432. However, there is a big "but!". Unlike his flaccid predecessor, Boris has never ruled out simple walking away. If that happens, the World Trade Organization will step in and introduce its Bali Package under which Britain will do business with the European hegemony. The Remoaners have dubbed this "crashing out without a deal!" Those words are usually followed by squeals of terror and a mad dash for the zombie-killing guns; however in truth the Bali Package is perfectly functional. It needn't be permanent; negotiations can continue afterwards. Refusing to rule out no-deal gives the UK the leverage we need to prevent ourselves being schmoozed into a lousy deal that leaves us as a Finlandized puppet. This is still a danger we face and Boris must stand firm. Based on the current behaviour of Michel Barnier, the EU's chief negotiator, it looks like they have already heard unofficially that we are indeed heading for the WTO on New Year's Eve. This reveals how private negotiations behind the scenes might have run. Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35XhJe1gg0A. We will soon know for sure.
See here for background: https://hpanwo.blogspot.com/2019/10/brexit-portal.html.
And: https://hpanwo-tv.blogspot.com/2020/10/why-i-still-support-boris.html.

2 comments:

firechild_uk said...

I have relatives in France and they seem to think the French apparently want no deal as part of Macron’s re-election strategy. The French believe the chaos caused will force Britain to return to the negotiating table cap in hand. Very stupid and short-sighted. A Maginot Line strategy.

Ben Emlyn-Jones said...

Hi Firechild. I know Macron in a bit of a mire right now because he's up against Le Pen again and she sounds stronger than she did last time. France has always been very expansionist when it comes to fishing. They've been in trouble for allowing their trawlers to drop net as far away as the Gulf of Guinea. It is a error on his par thought because h underestimates the British. We will go for WTO if necessary which means the Euro Council have no serious bargaining chips to play.