See here for essential background: http://hpanwo-voice.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/catalonia-independence-update.html.
The parliament of
has made a unilateral declaration of independence. Yesterday, in front of the
world's media, the spokeswoman for the Catalan government read out the formal
statement transforming Catalonia
from a devo-max Spanish region into a sovereign republic, see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvJ3e14FYr0.
Unfortunately it is not as simple as that. Madrid
is sticking by the same position it has held all month, that the independence
referendum is unlawful. There is no way it will recognize Catalonia's
independence. In response to Puigedemont's motion, the Spanish senate has held
an emergency session and has invoked the dreaded Article 155. This enables Madrid
to dissolve the Catalan devolved government altogether. In fact the Spanish Prime
Minister Mariano Rajoy has already appointed his own deputy, Soraya Saenz, as interim
governor of what he sees as no more than one of Spain's
regions gone renegade. However, as Simon Harris explains, Rajoy does not have
as much clout as he is boasting. He faces potential rebellion from within his
own government if he extends his reach too far. This weakness will not be lost
on Puigedemont, see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ul0a2Rc50lg.
According to Harris, the Catalan president made a last-minute attempt to escape
155 by calling elections in his parliament, but when he got no response from Madrid
he stuck by his guns and brought in the proposal of UDI. It was passed 70 to 20,
What will happen now? If Rajoy has his way with Article 155 then he will arrest Puigedemont and all the members of the Catalan parliament involved. Already some of them are in jail and the devolved government has been fined. They could face up to thirty years in prison for various statues relating to sedition. If this happens then there will be massive protests from the pro-independence Catalans and maybe another general strike or riots etc. Rajoy will then declare martial law and send in the security services to put down the rebellion. We could also see economic sanctions of various kinds.
richest region, but it relies of trade with the rest of Spain
too. However, how popular will a trade embargo be with private industry in Spain
on whose support Rajoy depends? If these extreme measures go ahead then the
Catalan people will then respond the way people almost always respond in that
situation; there will be an armed confrontation, probably involving guerrilla
warfare. This will include internal conflict with Spanish unionists within
Catalonia and this will no doubt continue even if Catalonia becomes fully independent,
perhaps especially so. Lessons from India,
Cyprus etc shows that partitioning doesn't work because you can't just draw a
line down a map and know that everybody from Population A will be one side and
everybody from Population B will be on the other. There are always minorities
left along the edges and if they have conflicting interests then they will inevitably
come to blows. This could result in civil war. Alternatively Rajoy could be forced
into a fall-back position, perhaps undoing the old order of Francoist unity and
doing a deal that will turn Spain
into some kind of federation. True independence might emerge from that. Catalonia
might easily restructure its economy in the same way Britain
can as a state independent from the European Union (despite defeatist Remoaner
fearmongering to the contrary). The wider shockwaves of a successful Catalan secession
will be that the Basques will demand the same and that drive might spread to
other countries with regions driving for autonomy, not least here in Britain,
as I've explained in the background link above. It's getting far more extreme
than just Scottish and Welsh nationalism; in the Canvey
estuary is now calling for independence, see: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/41781609/canvey-island-an-essex-community-s-independence-bid.
Could we see the break-up of the national state order? Well, we are already
seeing that with the sinister drive toward superstates and globalism; but I'm
talking about a break-up in other opposite direction, towards a multitude of
microstates, which is what used to exist in many places, such as Italy
and Germany, in
the Middle Ages. If so then I would welcome it, providing people are aware
about how the globalists might take advantage of it. At the moment, with the
exception of Venice, separatists in
Europe have taken the paradoxical position of wanting
independence via membership of the European Union. If you speak English then
the best place I recommend to get updates on this situation is Simon Harris'
YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMpnS1ol8dl2dYmQHFOGxjw.
See here for more information: http://hpanwo-voice.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/freedom-for-venice.html.