Saturday, 28 October 2017

Independence for Catalonia

The parliament of Catalonia has made a unilateral declaration of independence. Yesterday, in front of the world's media, the spokeswoman for the Catalan government read out the formal statement transforming Catalonia from a devo-max Spanish region into a sovereign republic, see: Unfortunately it is not as simple as that. Madrid is sticking by the same position it has held all month, that the independence referendum is unlawful. There is no way it will recognize Catalonia's independence. In response to Puigedemont's motion, the Spanish senate has held an emergency session and has invoked the dreaded Article 155. This enables Madrid to dissolve the Catalan devolved government altogether. In fact the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has already appointed his own deputy, Soraya Saenz, as interim governor of what he sees as no more than one of Spain's regions gone renegade. However, as Simon Harris explains, Rajoy does not have as much clout as he is boasting. He faces potential rebellion from within his own government if he extends his reach too far. This weakness will not be lost on Puigedemont, see: According to Harris, the Catalan president made a last-minute attempt to escape 155 by calling elections in his parliament, but when he got no response from Madrid he stuck by his guns and brought in the proposal of UDI. It was passed 70 to 20, see:

What will happen now? If Rajoy has his way with Article 155 then he will arrest Puigedemont and all the members of the Catalan parliament involved. Already some of them are in jail and the devolved government has been fined. They could face up to thirty years in prison for various statues relating to sedition. If this happens then there will be massive protests from the pro-independence Catalans and maybe another general strike or riots etc. Rajoy will then declare martial law and send in the security services to put down the rebellion. We could also see economic sanctions of various kinds. Catalonia is Spain's richest region, but it relies of trade with the rest of Spain too. However, how popular will a trade embargo be with private industry in Spain on whose support Rajoy depends? If these extreme measures go ahead then the Catalan people will then respond the way people almost always respond in that situation; there will be an armed confrontation, probably involving guerrilla warfare. This will include internal conflict with Spanish unionists within Catalonia and this will no doubt continue even if Catalonia becomes fully independent, perhaps especially so. Lessons from India, Ireland and Cyprus etc shows that partitioning doesn't work because you can't just draw a line down a map and know that everybody from Population A will be one side and everybody from Population B will be on the other. There are always minorities left along the edges and if they have conflicting interests then they will inevitably come to blows. This could result in civil war. Alternatively Rajoy could be forced into a fall-back position, perhaps undoing the old order of Francoist unity and doing a deal that will turn Spain into some kind of federation. True independence might emerge from that. Catalonia might easily restructure its economy in the same way Britain can as a state independent from the European Union (despite defeatist Remoaner fearmongering to the contrary). The wider shockwaves of a successful Catalan secession will be that the Basques will demand the same and that drive might spread to other countries with regions driving for autonomy, not least here in Britain, as I've explained in the background link above. It's getting far more extreme than just Scottish and Welsh nationalism; Canvey Island in the Thames estuary is now calling for independence, see: Could we see the break-up of the national state order? Well, we are already seeing that with the sinister drive toward superstates and globalism; but I'm talking about a break-up in other opposite direction, towards a multitude of microstates, which is what used to exist in many places, such as Italy and Germany, in the Middle Ages. If so then I would welcome it, providing people are aware about how the globalists might take advantage of it. At the moment, with the exception of Venice, separatists in Europe have taken the paradoxical position of wanting independence via membership of the European Union. If you speak English then the best place I recommend to get updates on this situation is Simon Harris' YouTube channel:

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