Wednesday, 28 May 2014

Independent Scotland- Battle of Numbers

Scottish Independence is back in the news, see: The UK Treasury and The Scottish government have engaged in an exchange of promotions, rhetoric and figures to try and justify the No and Yes campaigns respectively. The Treasury says Scots are £1400 a year better off being in the United Kingdom because public services are subsidized by Westminster; and also the price of restructuring the Scottish government would cost £1.5 to 2.7 billion. Scotland also has an older population on average than the rest of the UK. Alex Salmond's office has retorted that, on the contrary, people in Scotland would be £1000 a year better off if the Yesses have their way due to more efficient tax system, better economic policy and a boost in North Sea oil revenue. As you can see from this graph, Independence was initially lagging behind in the opinions polls, but the gap has closed and the Yesses have overtaken the No's a couple of times, see: If it turns out that Scotland comes up trumps in the complex matter of splitting the National Debt, then the Yes line will probably soar up even further, perhaps to a winning position. There are now draft designs of the UK flag without its constituent St Andrews Saltire, see: (I'm glad to see that the Red Dragon of Wales gets a look in on some of the new designs). These economic theoretical statistics are all in "pounds", but, as I ask in the background articles, what currency will Scotland be using if... when... it becomes independent? Salmond has still not convinced Westminster of his plan for a "Sterling zone", see background links for more details. I can't help thinking that Salmond's consistent failure to reach a currency deal is suspicious. There's only so much failure you can suffer by accident. I predict that at some point somebody is going to suggest that Scotland joins to Eurozone. Mark my words!

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