This polling day feels different from the others. It has the
atmosphere of a holiday or special occasion. Google has even created a daily
logo for it. I'm not sure why that is, because it's not as if the contenders
are neck-and-neck or anything. The outcome is already very obvious with one
party decisively in the lead and predicted to win a supermajority. It should be
the most boring general election ever, so why are people treating it as the
most exciting? I've been to the local polling station, see illustration, and I
did my democratic duty. I voted during my lunch hour and there were only two
other voters there. It is a very simple process; I just showed my passport and
polling card and they gave me a ballot paper with a list of boxes to cross next
to the candidate I want. After I had crossed the box I folded the ballot and
slid it into a sealed box. I chose to vote once again for the Independent
Oxford Alliance; their prospective parliamentary candidate is called David
Henwood. I voted for the IOA in the local elections, see: https://hpanwo-voice.blogspot.com/2024/05/i-backed-winner.html.
If Oxford East had a Reform UK candidate I think I would have backed them
instead, but this is one of the forty-one constituencies in the country Reform
are not contesting. I predict cautiously that Reform might win five to seven
seats; hopefully they'll get more. Because of our unique electoral system, the British
parliament is dominated by larger and more well-established parties, and the
glass ceiling is very high for newer smaller parties. It is very different in
most continental nations which is why populists are achieving far more success
there. I'm sure it is merely the presence of Nigel Farage and his party that
has enlivened us, regardless of how many seats they win. His populism is a
cultural as well as a political phenomenon. It is as if at the end of 2016
somebody pressed paused and now suddenly, after eight whole years, they've hit
play again. The reaction of the establishment confirms this. They have taken
huge risks and attempted some very disreputable manoeuvres to try and defame
Reform. These luckily have not worked and their machinations have been exposed,
see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laTQRHPaG18;
but why go to such lengths to stop a party that they know is going to lose? The
"Reformolution" must be about far more than just this election. I
don't know what will happen in the next five years; but, as I say in the
background links, we have reason to remain positive and hopeful. So sit back,
relax and enjoy this general election; and don't forget to pour a nice big
glass of Tory tears! Please go to HPANWO TV to watch a special election
livestream, see: https://hpanwo-tv.blogspot.com/2024/07/general-election-2024-livestream.html.
Also, see here for my election HPANWO Radio show: https://hpanwo-radio.blogspot.com/2024/07/hpanwo-show-55-podcast-niall-murphy.html. PS: Happy Independence Day to all my American readers.
See here for more background: https://hpanwo.blogspot.com/2019/10/brexit-portal.html.
And: https://hpanwo-voice.blogspot.com/2024/06/hold-your-nose-and-vote-tory.html.
And: https://hpanwo-tv.blogspot.com/2019/03/why-2016-matters.html.
See here for more background: https://hpanwo.blogspot.com/2019/10/brexit-portal.html.
And: https://hpanwo-voice.blogspot.com/2024/06/hold-your-nose-and-vote-tory.html.
And: https://hpanwo-tv.blogspot.com/2019/03/why-2016-matters.html.
Well done for voting and making a reasoned, individual choice. I did vote Reform in the end. The polling station was busy and chatter locally has been about keeping Labour out. It is a very safe Tory seat with a well liked MP so that probably means the Tories will hang on and Reform won't do particularly well because people are voting out of fear of a Labour national supermajority.
ReplyDeleteCheers, GM. The main thing is you did what you could as an individual to do what's right. The exit polls look encouraging for Reform so I look forward to this night.
ReplyDeleteWith the results in it has been very clear the enlivenment and excitement wasn't about Reform it was about removing 14 years of failed politics by the conservative party.
ReplyDeleteIf we look more granular the Labour 'super majority' predicted wasn't a result of them getting more votes, the reality being they got much less than the previous election under Corbyn's leadership. The result was achieved by people voting tactically and methodically to remove them from office. Helped greatly by reform candidates splitting the conservative vote with no real chance of much success being translated into seats and the Lib Dems being the choice of many in the conservative strongholds. I like to think that the exit poll prediction on Reform picking up many (13) seats was in part flawed by an 'undercover' social media led campaign to skew it by voters (including myself) to claim we voted reform if asked by isos despite choosing other parties. Mission success!
I wonder how long before Farage demands proportional representation despite being against having repeat referendums as they are 'against the will of the people' Someone should remind him of the 2011 referendum on that issue and the result.
Anon, I have to disagree with your downplaying of the role of Reform UK in the "spirit" of the election, but you're right about Labour. I said from the start that their win would obviously be a huge anticlimax. Peter Hitchens made the point about Reform diluting opposition to Labour, but in the background links I explain why I differ with him. As for the skewed exit poll, how exactly did that work? I don't know of the social media campaign you speak of and how would it have an influence? I polls are not 100% accurate.
ReplyDeleteI remember the Pro-Rep referendum too and I don't think it will be easy to justify and might indeed lead to charges of hypocrisy.
I am actually quite satisfied with last night's haul of Reform seats. It was fewer than I hoped, but it is enough. Besides, when it comes to actual power in parliament 4 seats is as good or bad as 14. Reform's role in the Commons will be different from that. It will be more influence by words and deeds than Ayes and Noes. Look how much Andrew Bridgen has achieved thus and he is just one man!
Anonymous...It isn't possible to speak reasonably of excitement in an election where the turnout is 7% down on the previous one, the lowest for 20 years and where the winning party has a share of the vote 5% less than when it previously lost.
ReplyDeleteThe result will ensure the continuity of failed politics, not its removal. Continuity of warmongering and continuity of supine sycophancy to the USA. "Mission success" indeed!
Ben...as you well know..."when it comes to actual power in Parliament"...there is none. Now back to my medicine cabinet to find another one of those black pills.
GN, you are correct of course, but times, they are a changin'.
ReplyDeleteBTW, it turns out Basildon might have a FIFTH Reform UK MP. They're doing a third recount right now. It is very close!
Well, they did get that fifth seat in the end. It's an indictment of FPTP that they can get 15% of the popular vote and fewer than 1% of the seats. We shouldn't forget they STOOD ASIDE last time to allow Boris to sort Brexit and the 2019 result might have been more like this one had they not done so. The Tory held on here as expected but Reform did get a 25% vote share and their share was 20-25% in all the neighbouring constituencies as well.
ReplyDeleteYou are right of course that the most important gain for Reform is a platform for Nigel Farage in Parliament. The internet is still replete with his classic performances as an MEP which were pivotal in inspiring the Brexit campaign. We can look forward to some more gems, I am sure.
Hi GM. Yes, I was very happy to see Reform win Basildon. A lot of Farage's success is because Boris started out as a popular hero and then threw it all away and sank back down into the establishment. It was a terrible disappointment and betrayal. I predict Nigel's fans will be in Parliament Square like Bridgen's are. Starmer will never attract admiration like that.
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