Despite many claims to the contrary, I think the days of
Britain's
independent nuclear deterrent are coming to an end, at least in terms of its
strategic submarine-launched variety, the only force at present. See background
links below where I've covered Trident in the past. There are more than one
insoluble factors contributing to its inevitable demise. The submarines and
missiles themselves are getting old. Trident was brought in to replace the
original Polaris system in the late 80's and early 90's when the Cold War was
already winding down. Polaris itself had been in operation since 1968 when the
Cold War was in full swing and showed no signs of ever ending. If the deterrent
is to continue a completely new fleet of ballistic missile submarines will have
to be built, at least four vessels, and a dozens of new missiles, at the cost
of twelve to twenty billion pounds. This expenditure for such a product will be
such a red hot political potato that it could be beyond the government's
ability to grasp. The second factor is the inevitable independence of
Scotland.
In the last general election the Scottish National Party gained a virtual
monopoly north of the border, occupying all but three
Westminster
seats. There is no way UK nuclear weapons could remain on Scottish soil with
independence, or even with much further increased devolution, in any form it
takes. This is one of the prime issues Scottish nationalists have always campaigned
on. To move Trident to a new location in
England
and
Wales would
be financially and politically out of the question. We also have to account for
the revelations of the whistleblower William McNeilly, see background links.
These have been incredibly damaging for the government's reputation. It has recently
been revealed that AB McNeilly has been discharged from the Royal Navy, however
no further action is planned to be taken against him. I find this strange; I
suspect that the MoD wants to move on as quickly as possible. Any more
publicity would be even more embarrassing for them, see:
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jun/17/trident-whistleblower-william-mcneilly-discharged-from-royal-navy.
The RN have casually dismissed his claims, much to the chagrin of anti-nuclear
activists and the SNP. A highly respected senior officer, Major General Patrick
Cordingley, who commanded
UK
forces in the 1990 Gulf War, has spoken out with his view that Trident is
militarily worthless. He believes that the real motive for the government
wanting to maintain it is nothing more than political prestige. In other words,
showing off to the neighbours, see:
http://rt.com/uk/269356-trident-outdated-military-nuclear/.
He's probably right, knowing the mindset of the David Cameron Government plc.
It wouldn't be the first time that heavy armament has been used as a conceptual
symbol rather than as a practically effective weapon; "psychological
warfare" in the very literal sense. The 2012 Olympics are a good example,
see:
http://hpanwo-voice.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/london-olympic-security-measures.html.
France is the closest country to Britain geographically and it has its own
version of Trident, FOS-
Force Océanique
Stratégique which includes
Le
Redoutable and
Triomphant-
class SSBN's and their missiles. We
don't want to be outdone by the Froggies now do we? This is probably why
Canada
tried to start a nuclear-powered submarine programme in the 1980's; because of
its rival the
USA's
huge fleet of such vessels. So based on recent events I feel more optimistic
now that we'll soon see the end of Trident. The system will probably go on for
a few more years until the
Vanguard-class
boats are no longer seaworthy and then end. Smaller scale tactical nuclear
weapons might be boosted as compensation; for example those delivered by
submarine-launched cruise missiles... unless of course there is a war, or one
of the maritime catastrophes William McNeilly has warned us about actually
happens.
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